Experiential Bias And COVID 19

Everyone is going to die!

I don't know anyone with it.

Everyone catches it.

I am not worried about it.

What do all of these comments have in common?

They are all based on the experience of the person who said it.  Each statement is fundamentally incorrect.  Each statement has some element of truth.  And each statement can influence what the next person thinks.

Experiential Bias 

Sounds scary, 'eh?  But what is really means is this:  We are biased to believe what we experience.  

Right now, in this COVID19 pandemic (i.e. Wuhan Coronavirus), there are a lot of people who are telling others their experience with the virus.  When they communicate it, others think that what they are hearing is the whole truth.  It is truth, but the truth that is only limited to the experience upon which it was created.  

For a healthcare worker in the COVID19 in an ICU setting with everyone on ventilators in the final stages of respiratory failure, the statement Everyone is going to die! may seem to be an accurate representation of the truth in that setting.  That's based on that person's experience.  

For others in unaffected areas in the country, I don't know anyone with it, may be equally true.  It is an accurate representation of that person's experience.  Ditto for the healthcare worker in a prison or elder care facility: Everyone catches it.  For young people at a house party with many other young people, I am not going to catch it seems like a "truth" that they believe.

Who Is Right?  Who Is Wrong?

The truth is this:  Nobody is right.  Nobody is wrong.  

If we look at the world at large, then nobody is right.  Their statements are simply incorrect for the larger community.  If we look at each of those comments within the smaller community from which they were derived, then all of them may be correct.

Does It Matter?

In this case, I believe the answer is a resounding yes.

While what one person believes, regardless if it's accurate or not, is of no consequence if they don't act on it or communicate it.  However, if that person communicates their conclusions based on their limited experience, then it may be of significant consequence.  Their opinion may influence the belief of the next person, and next, and next.  These misconceptions can explode with disastrous consequences. An explosion of incorrect information and interpretation.

The Failure Of The Media And Influence On Re-Opening

Unfortunately, the media in this country is the largest threat to accurate dissemination of information on the COVID19 pandemic.  The media is biased to provide bad news because it is what catches the attention of people and increases their audience.  Larger audiences mean money from advertisers.  You have probably heard if it bleeds, it leads.  Headlines of good news are vastly outnumbered by those of bad news.  Want proof?  Just look at any newspaper, TV or cable show, internet channel, or any other "news" outlet.  In those channels, bad news sells far better. (Only in non-serious entertainment outlets such as social media do mindless videos of cats on piano keys or the latest breakup of some brain-numb celebrity become the headline). 

News channels, by their emphasis on bad news about the COVID19 pandemic, has negatively influenced the handling of this crisis.  Many politicians in charge are abusing their power and placing draconian restrictions on their states that make no sense. Why? Perhaps it's because of their limited experience of the realities of the COVID19 crisis and it being unduly influenced by the "mainstream" media and its bias toward negative news.  Some, on the other hand, are handling their re-opening of the states in a balanced measured manner.  Their approach seems to be more sound, based on data rather than emotion.

There is no one right answer...nor one wrong answer. It's all about tailoring a response to the correct situation.

Simply put, many of the politicians are incorrectly handling the opening up of their states.  It is likely due to being influenced by the continuous biased negative coverage by the media.  It takes a cool head and the ability to understand data, not just hysteria to make intelligent decisions.  Some do it, some don't.  

It's unfortunate, but public policy and its impact on YOU is being influenced by the sensationalized coverage by the media and its bias to emphasize bad news and negative developments of this COVID19 crisis for the sake of boosting its audience and advertising revenues.  That is a sad, but true statement. A sensationalized media is directly impacting your life and shaping your future.   Moreover, there is considerable discussion on the political bias of various media and digital outlets and their impact on this crisis, but that is not the focus of this post.  And let's not forget the news "celebrities" and politicians who say one thing to their audience ... then don't follow their own suggestions. 

The Greater Your Experience, The More Accurate It Is

It is important for everyone to expand their experience as much as possible.  This COVID crisis is a perfect and timely example of the significant damage that can happen when limited experience creates public policy.  Blinders are good for horse racing, but not for our elected and non elected officials.

Pay attention to the broad scope of the issues.  What is happening in your neighborhood, but also what is happening on the other side of the country.  What is happening in the city, but also what is happening in the suburbs and the rural communities. Often they are very different experiences and one size does not fit all. 

One explanation does not fit all.  One solution does not fit all.

If we are going to be biased due to our experiences, then it behooves us to have the largest and broadest experience possible to help provide the most intelligent solutions.  That is our responsibility as individuals.  It is also our responsibility to hold our elected and non-elected officials to that same standard, to ensure that they are making the best decisions, based on sound broad-based and non-biased information.  To make intelligent decisions.

I don't know about you, but I don't want decisions being made about my future, my liberties and my community by individuals that only hear ... Everyone is going to die! or I don't know anyone who has it...  Ideally, those decision-makers hear those statements, as well as many others, providing them with the broadest and most intelligent experience to allow them to reduce the inherent bias of any one of those statements when making decisions that impact us all. 

The greater the knowledge ... the better the decision.